US media: If you admit defeat in Trump’s election or consider exercising presidential pardon

Can Trump pardon himself? Foreign media: no precedent to follow

Nowadays, almost all US media believe that Biden's victory is "a done deal," and they have begun to wonder what Trump can do in the last few months of his term.

CNN believes that even if Trump will leave the White House, he will not have to face the voters again, so he can exercise his presidential power unfettered in the end, retaliate and protect himself as much as he wants: amnesty, dismissal, and The Presidential Executive Order was issued.

So, is there any limit to Trump’s power to pardon? Is it possible to pardon yourself or his family at the end of the presidency?

Reuters published an article on November 8 to explain this issue: The president has an overwhelming power of pardon, but this power is not absolute and only applies to federal crimes; the question of whether Trump can pardon himself, and There is no clear answer, because there is no precedent

Trump’s power of pardon is not absolute

The pardon power comes from the U.S. Constitution and is one of the most extensive powers enjoyed by the president. Successive presidents of the United States have regarded the power of pardon as a way of showing “kindness” and “serving the public interest.”

Although pardons are usually given to people who have been sued, they can also be pardoned for specific people’s actions that have not yet led to legal proceedings. According to the Constitution, other government departments cannot review the pardon, and the president does not need to give a reason for issuing the pardon.

The form of pardon includes eliminating the criminal conviction of a specific person, or reducing the sentence on the basis of retaining the original sin.

But the power of pardon is not absolute. The most important thing is that this power only applies to federal crimes. For example, pardons will not protect Trump’s aide Michael Cohen from the ongoing criminal investigation by the Manhattan District Attorney.

Can Trump pardon his family?

Yes, Trump has the power to pardon his family. There are precedents for this behavior.

In 2001, former President Clinton pardoned his brother Roger Clinton. Roger was convicted of possession of cocaine in Arkansas.

In addition, Trump can also pardon former officials who have served him.

Previously, Trump had stated that he could pardon his former national security adviser Michael Flynn (Michael Flynn). Flynn admitted that before Trump took office in 2017, he lied to the FBI about a discussion with a Russian official.

Reuters also speculated that Trump would first pardon his personal lawyer, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are investigating whether Giuliani violated lobbying in his Ukrainian transaction.

Can Trump pardon himself ?

There is no clear answer to this question. Because no president has tried before, and there is no precedent for court intervention.

Brian Kalt, a professor of constitutional science at Michigan State University, told Reuters: “When people ask me if the president can pardon himself, my answer is always,’Well, he can try.’ Because the constitution says No clear answer is given.”

Carter stated that Trump can try to pardon himself first to eliminate the possibility of prosecution after he leaves office. In this case, the legality of the pardon may never be tested in court.

He explained that because if the court is to rule on the validity of the pardon, federal prosecutors must first file criminal charges against Trump.

However, many legal experts believe that self-pardon is unconstitutional because it violates a basic principle that “no one can serve as a judge in his own case.”

CNN held the same view in an article on the 7th, thinking that there is no clear answer to this matter because there is no precedent to follow. But CNN said that if Trump really wants to do this, the federal court will give an accurate answer.

If Trump cannot pardon himself, can the vice president execute it for him?

This question was raised based on a memo from the Nixon administration.

Reuters quoted the content of the 1974 memo as saying that an attorney at the US Department of Justice once stated that President Nixon could not pardon himself, but he could choose another way: let his vice president succeed him as president, and then from him. Get pardoned.

In order to do this, Nixon chose to resign, deep in the “Watergate” scandal. According to the 20th and 25th Amendments to the U.S. Constitution, after the “incapable” president steps down, the vice president will succeed the president. Nixon’s successor, Gerald Ford, also lived up to expectations and pardoned any federal crimes that Nixon had committed or might have committed during his tenure.

Brown University political science professor Corey Brettschneider (Corey Brettschneider) said that Trump can also get a pardon from the current Vice President Mike Pence, but it is not clear what benefits Pence will get if he agrees to pardon Trump. “I don’t think Pence would do that.”

US media announced that after Biden won the election, Trump returned to the White House desolately, and someone nearby shouted “loser”

The tree fell and the sun was scattered, Trump’s hopes of re-election became increasingly diminished, and the “privileges” enjoyed by the president would be stripped of them one by one.

According to Bloomberg News, Trump, as the President of the United States, has a special “immunity” when speaking on Twitter. Even if he publishes false information or “cross-border speech”, he will not be forced to delete posts. If he is expelled from the White House, then this “privilege of immunity” will also be deprived.

Of course, compared with the various lawsuits and possible prison sentences that Trump faced after leaving office, the “immunity” of Twitter’s speech may be nothing. The American magazine “Business Insider” analyzed a number of lawsuits that Trump may face.

If Trump loses the presidency, he may face criminal and civil investigations at the federal and state levels in the United States in the next few years, as well as the presidential immunity he has enjoyed so far;

Given that multiple investigations have been launched, the New York State Attorney may create the most troublesome problem for Trump;

The Trump campaign and its joint fundraising committee will also face criminal investigations into election fundraising and misuse of funds, which may exceed four years;

Biden has not made it clear whether the new administration will use the “Russian connection” evidence detailed in the Mueller report to file federal charges against Trump.

Once Trump confirms his defeat in the 2020 election, the immunity granted to him by the presidency over the past four years will naturally disappear, and he may face a wave of legal challenges.

The trouble waiting for him may come from multiple sources: federal and state-level investigations, criminal and civil investigations, and matters involving his business, political operations, and presidency.

Of course, Trump can also play self-protection tricks to avoid legal risks; first, he can try to pardon himself, or guard the government’s lame duck period, completely resign from the presidency, and order Vice President Pence to preemptively act as his successor To forgive him.

There are precedents for such a move. In 1974, when Nixon faced the threat of impeachment from the Watergate Incident, he was forced to resign and let the successor President Ford pardon him, but the historical dispute continues to this day.

But such a strategy will not save Trump and his closest allies from possible fines, or even from any challenges at the state level — the president’s pardon has no effect on them — and imprisonment.

Former Justice Department and Federal Election Commission officials and other legal scholars told people familiar with the matter that legal issues after Trump’s resignation may last for several years.

If this is the case, Trump’s personal troubles will be accompanied by a series of legal scandals — and in some cases prison time — involving former political and personal aides, including campaign chairman Paul Manafort, White House consultant history Steve Bannon, national security adviser Michael Flynn, campaign vice chairman Rick Gates, adviser Roger Stone, lawyer and fundraiser Elliott Broidi.

“Once the president leaves office, he may be subject to a lot of criminal charges,” said Brendan Fisher, the federal reform director of the nonpartisan Campaign Law Center. In recent years, the center has filed multiple charges against Trump, his campaign team and pro-Trump political organizations.

Does the Federation not prosecute? New York prosecutors rushed to the fore

Regarding presidential pardons, there is the fact that they only apply to federal affairs.

Then, it will be transferred to the state-level investigation. Because of the decentralization system in the United States, the presidential amnesty does not affect local litigation.

This makes New York’s chief prosecutor, Letitia James, the Trump Group’s fraud investigation of financial transactions, becoming Trump’s biggest trouble.

James’ investigation is designed to determine whether the Trump Group illegally exaggerated the value of its assets in order to obtain tax relief. In October last year, the president’s son Eric Trump swore to answer questions as part of the investigation. This is a civil case, not a criminal case.

James’s former prosecutor, Barbara Underwood, has cancelled a non-profit foundation established by Trump’s eldest son Donald Jr. in 2018 because the organization was accused of “just a checkbook for Trump. Services for commercial and political interests”. Trump was also required to pay US$2 million in damages and allocate the remaining US$1.78 million of the foundation’s assets to several charities, including the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, the Joint Fund of Black Colleges, and the United Way of the National Capital Region.

Meanwhile, Manhattan District Attorney Vance (Cyrus Vance) is investigating Trump and the Trump Organization for suspected banking and insurance fraud. A grand jury has subpoenaed Trump’s personal and business tax returns for eight years. Trump resisted the subpoena all the way to the Supreme Court, but in July, Trump lost the lawsuit with a 2–7 verdict, and the judge of the Southern District of New York, Victor Marrero, recently rejected Trump. Appeal.

Issues that Vance’s office may be investigating include: Is it illegal for Trump to pay hush money to pornographic movie star Stormy Daniels and “Playboy” model Karen McDougall. Both women said that they had sexual relations with Trump, but Trump denied that they had.

Federal prosecutors have listed Trump as “Person №1” as part of the case against former private lawyer Cohen. Cohen pleaded guilty in August 2018 and was later sentenced to three years in prison.

In general, this series of legal proceedings may further damage Trump’s business empire. The Trump Organization, which has experienced the impact of the coronavirus, will suffer a double blow from economic turmoil and brand value.

New York’s chief prosecutor Letitia James is investigating Trump Group financial transactions

Mueller’s investigation into whether the “Russian Gate” will come back

Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation report has gone through more than two years, but he has lightly brought to Trump’s access to Russia and believes that there is no conclusive evidence. The Democrats were quite disappointed, which led to their efforts to impeach Trump to fall short. However, if Trump leaves the White House and whether Trump colluded with Russia to participate in the 2016 election intervention, will relevant investigations come back?

The 448-page Mueller report detailed evidence of Trump’s repeated attempts to obstruct justice during the Russian investigation. The Mueller report did not conclude that Trump violated the law — nor did it excuse him. However, the special prosecutor himself confirmed in testimony to the House Judiciary Committee in July 2019 that once Trump leaves office, he may be charged for obstructing official duties.

It is unclear whether Biden will use federal judicial resources to continue to track Trump on the Mueller report.

Biden recently promised not to interfere with the decision of the Ministry of Justice. Technically speaking, as long as the legal retrospective statute of limitations is met, the investigation can still be continued. For allegations of obstruction of justice at the federal level, prosecutions are filed within 5 years after the alleged crimes are committed, and if any latest criminal activity is discovered, the retrospective limitation period may be reset.

In August of this year, when Biden was asked at the ABC News meeting about how he would handle the evidence about Trump accumulated during the Mueller investigation, he said, “What Biden’s Department of Justice will do is to make the Department of Justice the Department of Justice. Let them judge who should be prosecuted.”

Regarding the Mueller-related prosecution against Trump, Biden added, “I will not rule out this possibility.”

Brad Pascal, Trump’s former campaign manager, became a bit “crazy” after being fired

Allegations of irregularities in campaign finance may last for many years

Trump’s current most high-profile misuse of campaign funds. This summer, the non-partisan Campaign Law Center filed an allegation that the Trump campaign was “through money laundering” through a company led by former campaign manager Brad Parscale or Trump campaign lawyers. , “Disguised” nearly $170 million in campaign spending. The Trump campaign denies that it has done anything wrong.

But this is not the only problem: Federal investigators are currently hearing several other funding complaints related to the Trump campaign. These allegations include: Donald Trump Jr. illegally solicited donations from foreign citizens; Failure to publicly disclose campaign debts incurred from municipal police bills that the Trump campaign refused to pay.

“It can be safely assumed that in the next few years, the Trump campaign team and its joint fundraising committee will only have to deal with criminal and Federal Election Commission investigations. If Trump is president for another four years, then the investigation It must be more than four years.” said Brett Capel, an election and government ethics lawyer for a well-known law firm.

Campaign funding issues are usually handled as civil complaints and are investigated by the bipartisan Federal Election Commission. The Federal Election Commission’s penalties are usually not paid by the candidate, but by the candidate’s political committee. However, the US Federal Election Commission currently lacks enough committee members to implement and regulate the federal campaign finance law. Even in the most optimistic times, related cases often take years to resolve.

If the Justice Department believes that the campaign or political committee violated criminal regulations, it can investigate campaign funding. But Trump himself must commit a “knowingly committed” violation before he can be sentenced to be responsible for the violation of campaign funds.

In 2019, the U.S. Department of Justice refused to investigate Trump’s allegations that he sought illegal foreign aid for his re-election campaign during a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that Ukraine is investigating Biden’s Son Hunter Biden. Although President Trump avoided any form of legal review on the Ukrainian issue, it was this topic that prompted the Democrat-majority House of Representatives to launch an impeachment action in December last year, while the Republican-dominant Senate almost took it in February this year. Vote completely according to the partisan line, acquitting Trump.

Violation of intimidation and suppression of voters

Several government officials accused the Trump campaign of intimidating voters in words and actions, or attempting to suppress votes in other ways, such as campaign staff videotaping the Philadelphia vote.

Allegations of intimidating or suppressing voters are usually the responsibility of the federal government. However, the state government can also pursue criminal responsibility in accordance with state laws. According to reports, Michigan is already investigating the Trump camp’s recent possible violations of suppressing votes.

The Trump Organization profits during the presidency

Trump continues to face federal lawsuits filed by the attorneys general of Maryland and the District of Columbia, accusing the president of violating the compensation clause of the U.S. Constitution. The lawsuit alleges that Trump makes money from foreign officials who live at the Trump International Hotel, which is located on Pennsylvania Avenue just a few blocks from the White House.

However, in October last year, the Supreme Court refused to hear a separate salary case filed by members of Congress, and the result was actually beneficial to Trump.

The legacy of the 2016 inauguration

The District of Columbia Attorney General Karl Racine sued Trump’s inaugural committee and the Trump Organization in January. Racine accused President Trump’s eponymous company of violating its non-profit status by spending more than $1 million to build a ballroom at Trump International Hotel, although the company barely used it during President Trump’s 2017 inauguration Through this room.

“Members of the Trump family were aware of and participated in the negotiation of this unreasonable contract,” the complaint read.

Trump’s inauguration committee tried to dismiss the lawsuit, but a judge in the Washington, DC High Court allowed the lawsuit to continue in September.

The IRS continues to pursue tax returns

For many years, Trump has stated that he will not publish his federal tax returns because he is being audited by the Internal Revenue Service.

Regardless of the fact that the audit does not prevent Trump from publishing his tax returns, the President’s reluctance to allow the public to conduct additional scrutiny of his financial situation is a sign to many critics that he may have forged his own. Personal accounts, or involved in some illegal financial activities.

Trump denies allegations of illegal tax evasion or any tax crime. But like Al Capone, the notorious godfather of the gang and the king of Chicago in American history, violating tax regulations is no small matter in the United States. If IRS officials suspect Trump’s wrongdoing, they may Let Trump have trouble walking around.

One month before the election day, the New York Times used the copies of Trump’s tax returns obtained to disclose last month that Trump planned a series of unusual financial transactions before the 2016 election. , Inject campaign funds at the last minute. Several experts questioned their legitimacy.

Trump’s political vitality is still very strong

Although Trump was expelled from the White House and became more and more like a clown on a reality show, he is actually far more influential than we thought in the political map of the United States. Judging from the result of the vote count, even if he is finally re-elected In failure, Trump won at least 68 million votes, 5 million more votes than he was first elected in 2016, and won about 48% of the popular vote, which is the support of nearly half of American voters

Trump has always exaggerated that his mission as an “outsider” is to clear the corruption swamp of the Washington establishment, so he portrays his personnel appointment disputes and administrative failures as a struggle against the “backstage government”

In contrast, Trump needs the Republican Party, rather than saying that Republicans need Trump to consolidate the voter base. From 2016 to 2000, the the party nominated two candidates. The Republican Party certainly knows that Trump is “the worst leader in history,” but it values ​​his appeal among Republican voters. Although Trump has been facing backlash from the Republican establishment tycoons, including Utah Senator Mitt Romney and the Lincoln Project, “Never Trumpers”, etc.,

Trump won 93% Of Republican voters. Even in the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, ethnic minorities were even more affected, and there were also affirmative protests that swept across the country that "black life is also life". The support rate is even higher among Latino voters (32%)-even though he often makes racist comments. The proportion of Latino voters in the United States will only increase, but no Republican nominee can win the votes of Latino voters like Trump, even if Bush’s younger brother Jeb Bush adds his Mexican His wife can't compete with Trump. This is the fact that Republicans worry most.

With a strong base of votes held hostage, Trump may be at ease for the time being. Since Biden emphasizes "cure" the United States, he is at least unwilling to challenge Trump at the federal level. It is Trump who ultimately won far more votes than expected in the polls before the election, so he has the confidence to continue to challenge the Democratic Party, including recounting votes, or requesting legal proceedings to get his "legitimate votes" back Even though Twitter and Facebook have been banned repeatedly, all mainstream TV stations boycotted his "advanced election" speech live broadcast, and even the Republican establishment leaders also condemned him for "stopping vote counting" and refusing to hand over power peacefully idea. If Trump’s various means of resistance fail, he has every reason to portray himself as a martyr, not being denied by the American voters, but plundered by invisible evil forces (the government behind the scenes). Will his conspiracy theory cause “civil unrest” in the United States? Perhaps for Trump, what he cares more about is whether he can hold back public opinion and become a bargaining chip against the American democratic system

In January 2020, Trump and evangelical leaders

In the history of the United States, incumbent presidents usually have a greater advantage to fight for re-election, but like Jimmy Carter and Bush Sr., they only have one term, and they are quickly forgotten by history. After all, the four-year ruling period is too short to leave a real policy impact. If Trump is forced to leave the White House on January 20, it will of course be a big blow to him, but with his high approval rate among Republican voters, Trumpism will certainly remain a powerful force in American politics and society. The destructive power.

For ordinary spectators, it may be regrettable that Trump has left the White House and has lost a lot of attention, but for Republicans who need to maintain a majority party seat, the midterm elections two years later may be even more worrying. It is necessary to properly cut off from Trump, who failed the election, but cannot ignore the basis of public opinion behind Trump. Therefore, when considering the various lawsuits that Trump is facing, one cannot completely ignore Trump’s political foundation in the United States. In the end, many lawsuits may be protracted or they may not stop.